by Keryn

Rory McIlmoil, project manager at Morgantown renewable energy consulting firm Downstream Strategies, has crunched some numbers to provide definitive proof that West Virginia's Alternative & Renewable Energy Portfolio is nothing but useless fluff.

As a follow-up to this article that Bill wrote about last week, McIlmoil created four tables that show what would happen if WV's ARPS was altered to actually support development of renewable energy, instead of "alternative" sources like coal derivatives, coal derivatives and more coal derivatives (and don't forget those burning tires!)

Rory says:

"Utilities get to bank credits for the first four years of the program, even though they are not required to meet any Alternative and Renewable Portfolio Standard (ARPS) requirement during those years. This has the effect of giving Allegheny Power—examined here--nearly 10 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of ARPS credits before they even use any of those credits. As you can see, this, combined with the fact that they’re banking more credits than they are required to generate during the 2011-2019 period, means that by the time the law requires more credits to be earned than Allegheny is actually earning (2020), Allegheny has banked a cumulative credit amount of over 13 million MWh. This provides them with the ability to avoid doing anything new in terms of developing renewable energy for far into the future, even at a 25% requirement level. Taking the following table out beyond 2025, Allegheny would be able to do nothing more until 2033. That’s 22 years from now.

46% of their credits are from waste coal. The other 54% are from existing hydro."

Table 1:  Actual program, Allegheny Power demonstrates this:


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Table 1 - click to enlarge
The second table shows what it would look like if they weren’t allowed to bank credits (which is the second greatest flaw of the legislation, after the fact that it allows for ‘alternative’ energy to be credited). In this case, Allegheny still wouldn’t have to add any new eligible generation such as wind or solar, or even waste coal or burning tires, until 2027, since their annual credits still exceed the requirement until 2020.

Table 2:  Allegheny’s compliance schedule, if banking of credits were not allowed
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Table 2 - click to enlarge
The third table shows the same thing, except with the waste coal excluded (in other words, what it would look like if the requirement was for true renewables only). Allegheny would not have to add any new eligible (renewable)  generation until 2024.

Table 3:  Allegheny’s compliance schedule, if the law required all 25% to be true renewables, but also allowed for banking credits from 2011 to 2015
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Table 3 - click to enlarge
Finally, the fourth table shows what it would look like with all 25% required to be true renewables, and with no banking of credits in the 0% years of 2011-2014. Under this scenario—which is what, in my opinion, the legislation and law should look like—Allegheny would need 200,000 new MWh of renewable generation in place as soon as 2015, with that increasing to nearly 3 million MWh by the time the 25% requirement kicks in as of 2025 (not shown in the table, but if you subtract the existing 1.3 million MWh of qualified hydro from the 25% requirement of 4.14 million MWh you get about 3 million MWh).
 
As an aside, 3 million MWh is the equivalent of approximately 1,100 MW of utility-scale wind generation (at a 30% capacity factor), which accounts for about 58% of what the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates is the wind potential on private lands in West Virginia at an 80 m hub height and a 30% capacity factor or greater.

Table 4:  Allegheny compliance schedule, only renewables qualify, no banking of credits
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Table 4 - click to enlarge
I won't call these numbers shocking, because we all know that Manchin's version of an RPS was not intended to actually promote the development of renewables, but intended to throw a bone to his friends in the energy and coal corporate boardrooms.  However, numbers don't lie!  Thanks to Rory for providing such a clear example of the problem and possible solutions.

What do you think, folks?  Should we take up this issue as one of our next initiatives and see what we can do to effect change for the better?
 


Comments

Patience
07/15/2011 11:07

Put it on the list! Rory's figures are damning - or enlightening, if you prefer - and I know we can do better.

This certainly is a nice, tidy set of charts to show legislators. I wonder if there's a way to make them graphical ...?

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bh link
07/16/2011 08:31

Rory's analysis is great. It points out clearly that there is no renewable energy credit market in WV's future. If power companies don't need to buy credits from anyone else, then this goofy law does nothing to encourage homeowners and small businesses to install their own solar or wind systems.

In other words, the current law is nothing but a farce. OH, PA, and MD are years ahead of WV in new installed small scale renewable installations. Unless this terrible WV law is changed, WV will remain technologically hostage to the two Ohio power companies that control our electrical system.

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